Formulae for Success

Read an article, recently about a graduate who is suing because she is unable to find a job after paying 70 grand for her education.  Obviously, she had an expectation of employment after paying so much for an education but is it a really a failing of the school that she is unable to find any?  Could it not be just a result of the current economy?  How much does it really impact on her prospects?  What is this formula for success?

 

After Googling for the best predictors, and usually just finding a host of self help books, and scientific studies of various drugs, or sociological studies on various subgroups, I noticed that most focussed on actions and activities that individuals have engaged in, which are associated with successful outcomes.  There are even articles suggesting that education has very little to do with success (citing John Lennon, Bill Gates, and Richard Branson).  This is at best is a convulution of statistics.  Richard Branson is ranked among the richest in the world and having never graduated from high school.  But it would be fallacious to believe that if one wants to be a multimillionaire one should DROP out of high school.  If one examines the majority of high school dropouts, a very small percentage of them even make an average income let alone above average.

 

I recall a lecture associating both local and global location with future outcome.  This makes much more sense and is somewhat obvious.  It is well documented that children growing up in wealthier neighbourhoods, grow up to be wealthier adults and those from working class neighbourhoods with similar outcomes.  What was somewhat surprising is that the location was more correlated with the child 's future prospects than family income ie a child from a wealthy family in a working class neighbourhood had a statistically lower probability of success than an economically challenged family living in a wealthy neighbourhood.  This association is even more glaringly obvious on the global scale.  It is highly unlikely that someone raised in the west end of London will be suffering through drought and famine nor is it likely that an untouchable from an Indian village will win the Nobel Prize in Physics.

 

The point here is that few of us every stray from the path into which we are born.  Some individuals who strive against the odds go onwards and upwards.  Others, who take up well defined perils(alcohol, drugs, crime) fall considerably well below it.  But as, afore mentioned, it is highly unlikely that no matter how much our west end, British public school graduates takes up the pint, he is unlikely to end up a victim of Darfur and no matter how hard our untouchable studies in the village school; honours in Stockholm will remain elusive.

 

This realization may sound depressing at first but for those of us who can actually read this article; what it suggests is; that so long as we follow the path of common sense, our fortunes are unlikely to suffer much.  The path to great success will continue to remain hidden by the clouds of improbability but surely we will never find it, if we give up the search.  One can perhaps learn from the great investors, who diservify their holdings AND limit their losses.  Moreover, they continue to hold onto their winners.  If time is to be considered an investment; the advice might suggest we cut short our time spent on unproductive activities and concentrate on more rewarding prospects.  Eventually, we will find a field worthy of self-immersion and from there we can reap the fruits of our efforts.

The Least We Can Do

Sometimes it is a wonder how humanity has accomplished so much, given our never ending search for the Least We Can Do.  A recent article on exercise has pointed out that we may need much more exercise than we previously thought, to prevent weight gain and encourage weight loss.  Numerous statements in the article and comments made about made it seem almost as if the amount of exercise is a mystical secret instead of the bloody obvious.  Bottom line, calories consumed in excess of that which is burned results in weight (fat) gain, and  calories burned in excess of calories consumed result in weight (not always wholly fat) loss.

 

But I digress, if you want to read about exercise, and weight loss, go here.  I would like to address how somehow, we can only be bothered to do the very least to achieve a gain.  This often results in extensive research, expensive purchases, and high risk activities to do what may be achievable quite easily with proper amount of time devoted to simple, well known pursuits.  Few take into account, if the same (or less) effort and time were devoted to tried and true methods, one could easily attain the goals and have a much fuller pocket to boot.

 

This stems for humanity 's penchant for self-delusion.  We want to believe there is a miracle solution, and barring that, we rationalize our understanding to fit the minimum effort.  We neglect small errors in our hypothesis, and friction in the systems.  Maybe the research was off about ten percent.  Maybe the two chicken breasts were slightly larger than the ones in the calorie charts and maybe we weren 't walking as quickly as we thought.  How do we plan for these unknowns?

 

We try to do the most, we try our best.  If half an hour of exercise is all that is required, surely we will have met our goal with an hour.  If we really want that A in the course, it might be worth reading the textbook twice and doing ALL of the problems, not just the assigned ones.  The problem is, is that the things we say we want, we may not really want.  It may just be what we are supposed to want.  Who wants to be fat?  Of course we want to lose wait.  Who wants a C?  Of course, we want an A.

 

Perhaps, we should word it, not as what we want, but what we are willing to strive for, to pursue.  THAT might change our frame of mind.  Instead of walking that half hour, and expect what we want, we can walk that half hour and ask ourselves, is that all we are prepared to do meet our goals?  Instead of seeking the secret of "the Least We Can Do", we merely ask ourselves, "Have I really done enough?". we might finally spend our precious time pursuing (and achieving) our goals.

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