Read an article, recently about a graduate who is suing because she is unable to find a job after paying 70 grand for her education. Obviously, she had an expectation of employment after paying so much for an education but is it a really a failing of the school that she is unable to find any? Could it not be just a result of the current economy? How much does it really impact on her prospects? What is this formula for success?
After Googling for the best predictors, and usually just finding a host of self help books, and scientific studies of various drugs, or sociological studies on various subgroups, I noticed that most focussed on actions and activities that individuals have engaged in, which are associated with successful outcomes. There are even articles suggesting that education has very little to do with success (citing John Lennon, Bill Gates, and Richard Branson). This is at best is a convulution of statistics. Richard Branson is ranked among the richest in the world and having never graduated from high school. But it would be fallacious to believe that if one wants to be a multimillionaire one should DROP out of high school. If one examines the majority of high school dropouts, a very small percentage of them even make an average income let alone above average.
I recall a lecture associating both local and global location with future outcome. This makes much more sense and is somewhat obvious. It is well documented that children growing up in wealthier neighbourhoods, grow up to be wealthier adults and those from working class neighbourhoods with similar outcomes. What was somewhat surprising is that the location was more correlated with the child 's future prospects than family income ie a child from a wealthy family in a working class neighbourhood had a statistically lower probability of success than an economically challenged family living in a wealthy neighbourhood. This association is even more glaringly obvious on the global scale. It is highly unlikely that someone raised in the west end of London will be suffering through drought and famine nor is it likely that an untouchable from an Indian village will win the Nobel Prize in Physics.
The point here is that few of us every stray from the path into which we are born. Some individuals who strive against the odds go onwards and upwards. Others, who take up well defined perils(alcohol, drugs, crime) fall considerably well below it. But as, afore mentioned, it is highly unlikely that no matter how much our west end, British public school graduates takes up the pint, he is unlikely to end up a victim of Darfur and no matter how hard our untouchable studies in the village school; honours in Stockholm will remain elusive.
This realization may sound depressing at first but for those of us who can actually read this article; what it suggests is; that so long as we follow the path of common sense, our fortunes are unlikely to suffer much. The path to great success will continue to remain hidden by the clouds of improbability but surely we will never find it, if we give up the search. One can perhaps learn from the great investors, who diservify their holdings AND limit their losses. Moreover, they continue to hold onto their winners. If time is to be considered an investment; the advice might suggest we cut short our time spent on unproductive activities and concentrate on more rewarding prospects. Eventually, we will find a field worthy of self-immersion and from there we can reap the fruits of our efforts.
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